Prediction markets · snapshot October 28, 2026
2028 election odds: markets vs. polls
Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi are the probability traders assign to each outcome. Polls measure what respondents say today. Putting both on one page shows where they disagree, which is usually where the interesting story is.
2028 Presidential Election Winner
Latest snapshot Oct 28, 2026 · Press snapshot.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| JD Vance | 18.2% | 19.2% |
| Gavin Newsom | 10.7% | 18.3% |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 13.0% | — |
| Marco Rubio | 9.7% | — |
| Jon Ossoff | 9.4% | — |
| Kamala Harris | 4.2% | — |
| Josh Shapiro | 2.9% | — |
| Pete Buttigieg | 2.5% | — |
| Ron DeSantis | 2.5% | — |
| Andy Beshear | 1.8% | — |
| James Talarico | 1.7% | — |
| Donald Trump | 1.6% | — |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 1.3% | — |
| Tucker Carlson | 1.2% | — |
| Mark Kelly | 1.1% | — |
| Wes Moore | 1.1% | — |
| Thomas Massie | 0.9% | — |
| Ro Khanna | 0.9% | — |
| Raphael Warnock | 0.9% | — |
| JB Pritzker | 0.8% | — |
| Ivanka Trump | 0.7% | — |
2028 Democratic Nominee
Latest snapshot Oct 28, 2026
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Gavin Newsom | 17.0% | — |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 16.1% | — |
| Jon Ossoff | 15.2% | — |
| Kamala Harris | 6.3% | — |
| Pete Buttigieg | 5.0% | — |
| Josh Shapiro | 5.0% | — |
| Andy Beshear | 3.5% | — |
| James Talarico | 2.5% | — |
| Mark Kelly | 1.9% | — |
| Wes Moore | 1.9% | — |
| Raphael Warnock | 1.9% | — |
| Rahm Emanuel | 1.7% | — |
| J.B. Pritzker | 1.5% | — |
| Bernie Sanders | 1.4% | — |
| Ro Khanna | 1.4% | — |
| Chelsea Clinton | 1.1% | — |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 0.9% | — |
| Cory Booker | 0.8% | — |
| Michelle Obama | 0.7% | — |
| Jon Stewart | 0.7% | — |
2028 Republican Nominee
Latest snapshot Oct 28, 2026 · Aggregator quote flagged as possibly stale.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 49.0% | — |
| JD Vance | — | 45.0% |
| J.D. Vance | 38.5% | — |
| Marco Rubio | 18.1% | — |
| Ron DeSantis | 3.5% | — |
| Tucker Carlson | 3.0% | — |
| Ted Cruz | 2.5% | — |
| Donald Trump | 1.9% | — |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 1.8% | — |
| Ivanka Trump | 1.5% | — |
| Thomas Massie | 0.8% | — |
| Brian Kemp | 0.8% | — |
| Elon Musk | 0.7% | — |
Reading the gap
A nomination market price is not the same quantity as a primary poll share. A candidate polling at 20% in a crowded field can be a 50% favourite if traders expect the field to consolidate around them. Markets also price events that polls can't see: whether a candidate runs at all, health, scandals, endorsements. Treat large gaps as a prompt to ask why, not as proof that one side is wrong.
Prices are mid-market or last-trade values at the time of our snapshot and can move within minutes. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Market data is fetched from each platform's public API; historical snapshots are in the open dataset.