ElectionsUSA

Pollster scorecard

How accurate is each pollster?

We recompute simple, explainable accuracy statistics for every pollster with at least ten polls in the final three weeks of a race since 2016, using FiveThirtyEight's open archive of 11,000+ polls matched to results. FiveThirtyEight's final letter grade (2023) is shown alongside for reference; it is no longer updated since the site closed in 2025.

How to read this table

  • Avg error: mean absolute difference, in points, between the poll's margin and the actual margin. Lower is better. A typical final-three-weeks poll misses by about 5 points.
  • Adjusted error: the same figure shrunk toward the field average (k = 15 polls), so pollsters with few polls aren't ranked on luck. Rows are sorted by this column.
  • Bias: average signed error. D+ means the pollster's polls were, on average, more favourable to Democrats than the result; R+ more favourable to Republicans.
  • Right call: share of polls whose leader won.
#PollsterMethodPollsCyclesAvg errorAdjustedBiasRight call538 grade
1Data OrbitalLive Phone162016–2022 2.64.14 D+0.5 84%A/B
2The New York Times/Siena CollegeLive Phone952016–2022 4.04.28 D+1.2 75%A+
3Harris Insights & AnalyticsOnline452018–2020 3.84.31 D+0.7 74%B
4CygnalIVR/Online382016–2022 3.74.31 D+2.3 93%A
5Echelon InsightsOnline102020–2022 2.24.37 R+0.7 70%A/B
6Research Co.Online582018–2022 4.04.40 D+1.0 90%B-
7Landmark CommunicationsIVR/Live Phone222016–2022 3.54.42 D+1.2 59%A
8ABC News/The Washington PostLive Phone162016–2022 3.24.49 D+2.8 78%A
9LegerOnline122016–2020 2.94.50 D+0.7 96%B/C
10St. Pete PollsIVR192016–2022 3.84.67 D+2.6 58%B+
11Morning ConsultOnline722016–2022 4.64.77 D+4.0 73%B-
12LucidOnline252016–2018 4.24.77 D+3.8 88%B
13Trafalgar GroupIVR1132016–2022 4.74.85 R+2.9 65%B
14Research & Polling Inc.Live Phone142016–2022 3.84.86 R+0.5 93%A+
15Rasmussen ReportsIVR/Online882016–2022 4.84.91 D+2.1 68%B
16InsiderAdvantageIVR/Online702016–2022 4.84.94 R+1.1 66%B
17AtlasIntelOnline242020–2022 4.44.94 D+0.6 73%A
18Emerson CollegeIVR/Online2492016–2022 4.94.96 D+0.6 78%A-
19IpsosOnline562016–2022 4.74.96 D+3.2 60%B-
20WickIVR/Online162017–2022 4.24.96 R+2.8 62%B/C
21Marquette University Law SchoolLive Phone102016–2022 3.84.99 D+1.5 70%A/B
22KAConsultingLive Phone112021–2022 3.95.00 R+3.9 91%A/B
23Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchLive Phone452016–2022 4.75.01 D+1.8 82%A
24OH Predictive InsightsLive Phone122016–2022 4.05.02 R+1.5 67%B/C
25SurveyUSAIVR/Online732016–2022 4.95.09 D+0.7 84%A+
26Suffolk UniversityLive Phone342016–2022 4.85.12 D+1.0 78%A-
27Selzer & Co.Live Phone152016–2022 4.55.14 D+1.0 87%A+
28Quinnipiac UniversityLive Phone692016–2022 5.15.21 D+4.4 67%A-
29Remington Research GroupIVR/Live Phone522016–2022 5.05.22 D+2.0 73%B
30Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.Live Phone192016–2022 4.85.22 D+2.1 55%B+
31Muhlenberg CollegeLive Phone122016–2022 4.55.22 D+1.8 75%A-
32CiviqsOnline422020–2022 5.15.27 D+4.5 81%B
33University of North Florida Public Opinion Research LabLive Phone112016–2022 4.65.28 D+4.7 64%A/B
34RRH ElectionsIVR/Text102016–2022 4.75.35 R+1.5 90%A/B
35Gravis Marketing/Kaplan StrategiesIVR/Online1202016–2020 5.35.36 D+2.9 70%B
36Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic LeadershipLive Phone112016–2021 4.85.38 D+1.8 91%A/B
37co/efficientIVR/Text202019–2022 5.15.40 R+4.5 68%B+
38Siena CollegeLive Phone212016–2022 5.25.42 ±0.0 88%A
39YouGovOnline1512016–2022 5.55.52 D+3.3 79%B+
40Marist CollegeLive Phone852016–2022 5.65.61 D+2.8 76%A
41University of Southern California Center for Economic and Social ResearchOnline102016–2020 5.65.71 D+3.1 80%B/C
42GBAOLive Phone102016–2020 5.65.72 D+4.9 75%B/C
43Dixie StrategiesIVR/Live Phone102016–2018 5.85.81 R+4.0 100%B/C
44EPIC-MRALive Phone122016–2022 5.95.87 D+2.9 75%B+
45Targoz Market ResearchOnline242018–2022 5.95.88 D+2.2 75%C
46University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public OpinionOnline242016–2022 6.05.90 D+2.5 81%A-
47Data for ProgressOnline1062019–2022 5.95.92 D+1.9 78%B
48RMG ResearchIVR/Text252020 6.05.93 D+6.0 76%B-
49MassINC Polling GroupLive Phone132016–2020 6.25.98 R+3.4 77%A/B
50Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategyLive Phone232016–2020 6.46.18 D+4.6 93%A-
51SSRSLive Phone272018–2022 6.46.19 D+5.3 70%C+
52Public Opinion StrategiesLive Phone102016–2022 6.86.21 D+4.2 65%B+
53Change ResearchOnline1092017–2020 6.46.30 D+3.4 75%B-
54Citizen DataIVR/Online122020 7.06.36 D+7.0 58%B/C
55Monmouth UniversityLive Phone752016–2021 6.66.50 D+4.9 75%A
56East Carolina University Center for Survey ResearchIVR/Online142020–2022 7.36.52 D+3.5 68%B/C
57SurveyMonkeyOnline2682016–2020 6.66.60 D+5.2 87%C
58University of New Hampshire Survey CenterLive Phone392016–2022 7.06.69 D+4.8 83%B-
59The Political Matrix/The Listener GroupIVR122018–2022 8.26.88 D+4.5 75%C/D
60Public Policy PollingIVR/Online1062016–2022 7.16.93 D+5.5 71%A-
61Google Consumer SurveysOnline122016 8.56.99 D+1.8 100%B/C
62Franklin & Marshall CollegeLive Phone/Online102016–2022 8.87.02 D+6.3 80%B/C
63SwayableOnline892020 7.27.04 D+5.1 89%C
64Big VillageLive Phone232016–2022 7.97.05 D+2.8 48%B-
65Loras College Public Opinion Survey CenterLive Phone122016 8.97.20 D+2.8 67%B/C
66Overtime PoliticsLive Phone122016 9.87.58 n/a 67%F
67SoonerPoll.comIVR/Online122016–2022 10.77.99 D+6.3 58%C
68Mitchell Research & CommunicationsIVR362016–2022 9.88.61 D+2.8 58%C-
69American Research GroupLive Phone432016–2020 9.78.66 D+4.9 77%C+

Source data: FiveThirtyEight raw-polls and pollster-ratings (2023 release), CC BY 4.0. Polls from 1998–2015 are excluded from the statistics above because methodology has changed too much to be comparable. Download this table (CSV).

2026 midterm scorecard

The 2026 midterms are on November 3, 2026. Once results are certified we score every final-three-weeks poll against them, which makes this the first independent pollster rating built since FiveThirtyEight stopped publishing. Results are added as a small CSV in the open dataset; the table appears here automatically.