Polling average · updated October 28, 2026
2028 Presidential Election Polls: Vance vs. Newsom
Polling average for the most-tested hypothetical 2028 general election matchup: JD Vance (R) against Gavin Newsom (D).
Weighted average of 3 polls (of 3 on record), as of October 28, 2026. Half-life 45 days. Method · JSON
Trend
Dots are polls; the line is the average as computed on each dateAll polls (3)
CSV →| Pollster | Dates | Sample | 538 grade | Vance | Newsom | Margin | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby Analytics | Jul 1–4, 2026 | 1,003 LV | B- | 45.1% | 38.1% | Vance +7.0 | 96.8% |
| Emerson College | Oct 13–14, 2025 | 1,000 RV | A- | 46% | 45% | Vance +1.0 | 2.2% |
| Emerson College | Aug 25–26, 2025 | 1,000 RV | A- | 44.4% | 43.5% | Vance +0.9 | 1.0% |
Rows marked ⓘ carry a note (for example, fieldwork dates inferred from press coverage). Weight is the poll's share of the current average after recency, sample-size, pollster-quality and frequency adjustments.
About this average
Hypothetical general-election polls this far from Election Day measure name recognition and partisan loyalty more than a decided choice, which is why this page uses a long 45-day half-life and why early leads of a few points should be read as a tie. The average becomes much more informative once both parties have nominees, in summer 2028.
Something wrong? Every row links to its source. Report an error through the corrections page and it will be fixed in the data, not just on the page.