Pollster scorecard · ranked 9 of 69
How accurate is Leger?
Leger's 12 polls in the final three weeks of 2016–2020 races missed the final margin by 2.9 points on average, ranking 9th of 69 pollsters on the ElectionsUSA scorecard. On average its polls leaned 0.7 points toward Democrats, and 96% had the eventual winner ahead.
- Average error
- 2.9
- points on the final margin; all pollsters 5.8
- Adjusted error
- 4.50
- 9th of 69 on the scorecard
- Partisan bias
- D+0.7
- average signed miss
- Right call
- 96%
- of polls had the winner ahead
- Rated polls
- 12
- final three weeks, 2016–2020
- 538 grade
- B/C
- final (2023)
Main survey method in the rated polls: Online.
By election year
| Year | Polls | Avg error | Bias | Right call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 9 | 2.5 | R+0.5 | 94% |
| 2020 | 3 | 3.9 | D+3.9 | 100% |
By race
| Race | Polls | Avg error | Bias | Right call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| President | 8 | 3.2 | D+0.5 | 94% |
| Senate | 3 | 2.7 | D+1.5 | 100% |
| Governor | 1 | 0.2 | ±0.0 | 100% |
Leger polls on ElectionsUSA (6)
CSV →| Race | Dates | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dem primary ↗ | Oct 23–25, 2026 | 375 A | Harris 22% · Newsom 11% · Buttigieg 8% | |
| Dem primary ↗ | Sep 26–29, 2025 | 341 LV | Harris 24% · Newsom 19% · Buttigieg 9% | |
| GOP primary ↗ | Sep 26–29, 2025 | 294 LV | Vance 50% · Rubio 6% | |
| GOP primary ↗ | Aug 29–31, 2025 | 308 LV | Vance 50% · Rubio 9% | |
| Vance vs. Newsom ↗ | Aug 29–31, 2025 | 849 A | Vance 46% · Newsom 47% | Newsom +1.0 |
| Dem primary ↗ | Aug 29–31, 2025 | 328 LV | Harris 30% · Newsom 24% · Ocasio-Cortez 10% |
Every poll ElectionsUSA has recorded for the approval, generic-ballot and 2028 averages, newest first. Names after a race are the media sponsor or co-pollster; ↗ opens the source.
How these numbers work
Accuracy covers polls taken in the final three weeks of races from 2016 to 2022, from FiveThirtyEight's open archive of polls matched to certified results (CC BY 4.0). Average error is the mean absolute difference between the poll's margin and the actual margin. The adjusted error shrinks it toward the field average (k = 15 polls) so a short hot streak can't outrank a long record, and the ranking uses it. Bias is the average signed miss: D+ means the polls were more favourable to Democrats than the result, R+ more favourable to Republicans.
Polls are listed under the firm that conducted them, even when the source names a media partner first (for example "The Economist/YouGov" or "CNN/SSRS"). Full method on the scorecard and methodology pages. Something wrong? Report it through the corrections page.