ElectionsUSA

Pollster scorecard · ranked 21 of 69

How accurate is Marquette University Law School?

Marquette University Law School's 10 polls in the final three weeks of 2016–2022 races missed the final margin by 3.8 points on average, ranking 21st of 69 pollsters on the ElectionsUSA scorecard. On average its polls leaned 1.5 points toward Democrats, and 70% had the eventual winner ahead.

Average error
3.8
points on the final margin; all pollsters 5.8
Adjusted error
4.99
21st of 69 on the scorecard
Partisan bias
D+1.5
average signed miss
Right call
70%
of polls had the winner ahead
Rated polls
10
final three weeks, 2016–2022
538 grade
A/B
final (2023)

Main survey method in the rated polls: Live Phone.

By election year

YearPollsAvg errorBiasRight call
201646.1D+5.650%
201820.6R+0.575%
202023.8D+4.4100%
202222.2R+2.275%

By race

RacePollsAvg errorBiasRight call
Presidential primary35.5n/a100%
Senate31.8D+1.267%
Governor22.2R+2.250%
President25.6D+5.650%

Marquette University Law School polls on ElectionsUSA (19)

CSV →
RaceDatesSampleResultMargin
Generic ballot ↗ Sep 2–9, 20261,023 A Democrats 48% · Republicans 39%Democrats +9.0
Generic ballot ↗ Sep 2–9, 2026581 LV Democrats 54% · Republicans 41%Democrats +13.0
Generic ballot ↗ Sep 2–9, 2026864 RV Democrats 50% · Republicans 42%Democrats +8.0
Generic ballot ↗ Jul 22–29, 2026886 RV Democrats 46% · Republicans 44%Democrats +2.0
Generic ballot ↗ Jul 22–29, 20261,076 A Democrats 45% · Republicans 41%Democrats +4.0
Generic ballot ↗ Jul 22–29, 2026572 LV Democrats 51% · Republicans 45%Democrats +6.0
Generic ballot ↗ May 20–26, 2026857 RV Democrats 46% · Republicans 45%Democrats +1.0
Generic ballot ↗ May 20–26, 2026576 LV Democrats 49% · Republicans 48%Democrats +1.0
Generic ballot ↗ May 20–26, 20261,001 A Democrats 45% · Republicans 41%Democrats +4.0
Generic ballot ↗ Apr 8–16, 2026576 LV Democrats 53% · Republicans 43%Democrats +10.0
Generic ballot ↗ Apr 8–16, 2026982 A Democrats 44% · Republicans 41%Democrats +3.0
Generic ballot ↗ Apr 8–16, 2026870 RV Democrats 48% · Republicans 44%Democrats +4.0
Generic ballot ↗ Jan 21–28, 2026869 RV Democrats 48% · Republicans 44%Democrats +4.0
Generic ballot ↗ Jan 21–28, 2026577 LV Democrats 52% · Republicans 45%Democrats +7.0
Generic ballot ↗ Jan 21–28, 20261,003 A Democrats 45% · Republicans 39%Democrats +6.0
Generic ballot ↗ Nov 5–12, 20251,052 A Democrats 46% · Republicans 41%Democrats +5.0
Generic ballot ↗ Nov 5–12, 2025903 RV Democrats 49% · Republicans 44%Democrats +5.0
Trump approval ↗ Mar 17–27, 20251,021 A Approve 46% · Disapprove 54%Disapprove +8.0
Trump approval ↗ Jan 27 – Feb 5, 20251,063 A Approve 48% · Disapprove 52%Disapprove +4.0

Every poll ElectionsUSA has recorded for the approval, generic-ballot and 2028 averages, newest first. Names after a race are the media sponsor or co-pollster; ↗ opens the source.

How these numbers work

Accuracy covers polls taken in the final three weeks of races from 2016 to 2022, from FiveThirtyEight's open archive of polls matched to certified results (CC BY 4.0). Average error is the mean absolute difference between the poll's margin and the actual margin. The adjusted error shrinks it toward the field average (k = 15 polls) so a short hot streak can't outrank a long record, and the ranking uses it. Bias is the average signed miss: D+ means the polls were more favourable to Democrats than the result, R+ more favourable to Republicans.

Polls are listed under the firm that conducted them, even when the source names a media partner first (for example "The Economist/YouGov" or "CNN/SSRS"). Full method on the scorecard and methodology pages. Something wrong? Report it through the corrections page.