ElectionsUSA

Pollster scorecard · ranked 11 of 69

How accurate is Morning Consult?

Morning Consult's 72 polls in the final three weeks of 2016–2022 races missed the final margin by 4.6 points on average, ranking 11th of 69 pollsters on the ElectionsUSA scorecard. On average its polls leaned 4.0 points toward Democrats, and 73% had the eventual winner ahead.

Average error
4.6
points on the final margin; all pollsters 5.8
Adjusted error
4.77
11th of 69 on the scorecard
Partisan bias
D+4.0
average signed miss
Right call
73%
of polls had the winner ahead
Rated polls
72
final three weeks, 2016–2022
538 grade
B-
final (2023)

Main survey method in the rated polls: Online.

By election year

YearPollsAvg errorBiasRight call
201682.7D+2.762%
201843.8R+3.8100%
2020544.8D+4.680%
202265.2D+5.28%

By race

RacePollsAvg errorBiasRight call
President374.6D+4.581%
House194.2D+2.655%
Senate164.9D+4.575%

Morning Consult polls on ElectionsUSA (73)

CSV →
RaceDatesSampleResultMargin
Trump approval · Deseret News and Hinckley Institute of Politics ↗ Oct 13–20, 20262,050 RV Approve 41% · Disapprove 56%Disapprove +15.0
Generic ballot ↗ Oct 13–20, 20262,050 RV Democrats 48% · Republicans 42%Democrats +6.0
Generic ballot ↗ Oct 5–11, 202617,654 LV Democrats 50% · Republicans 43%Democrats +7.0
Generic ballot ↗ Sep 28 – Oct 4, 202617,659 LV Democrats 50% · Republicans 43%Democrats +7.0
Generic ballot ↗ Sep 21–27, 202618,786 LV Democrats 50% · Republicans 43%Democrats +7.0
Generic ballot ↗ Sep 18–20, 202618,336 LV Democrats 50% · Republicans 43%Democrats +7.0
Generic ballot ↗ Sep 10–15, 20262,102 RV Democrats 46% · Republicans 43%Democrats +3.0
Generic ballot ↗ Sep 7–13, 2026LV Democrats 49% · Republicans 43%Democrats +6.0
Generic ballot ↗ Sep 4–6, 20262,203 RV Democrats 46% · Republicans 42%Democrats +4.0
Dem primary ↗ Aug 28–30, 2026RV Harris 24% · Newsom 12% · Buttigieg 9%
Generic ballot ↗ Aug 10–16, 202629,719 RV Democrats 46% · Republicans 42%Democrats +4.0
Generic ballot ↗ Aug 3–9, 202629,719 RV Democrats 47% · Republicans 42%Democrats +5.0
Generic ballot ↗ Jul 27 – Aug 2, 202624,000 RV Democrats 46% · Republicans 42%Democrats +4.0
Generic ballot ↗ Jul 20–26, 202624,000 RV Democrats 46% · Republicans 43%Democrats +3.0
Generic ballot ↗ Jul 17–19, 20262,200 RV Democrats 46% · Republicans 43%Democrats +3.0
Generic ballot ↗ Jul 10–13, 20262,200 RV Democrats 46% · Republicans 43%Democrats +3.0
Generic ballot ↗ Jun 29 – Jul 5, 202624,000 RV Democrats 46% · Republicans 42%Democrats +4.0
Generic ballot ↗ Jun 22–28, 202624,000 RV Democrats 46% · Republicans 42%Democrats +4.0
Generic ballot · Cato Institute ↗ Jun 25–26, 20261,797 RV Democrats 45% · Republicans 39%Democrats +6.0
Generic ballot ↗ Jun 19–22, 2026RV Democrats 46% · Republicans 42%Democrats +4.0
Generic ballot ↗ Jun 8–14, 202624,000 RV Democrats 46% · Republicans 42%Democrats +4.0
Generic ballot ↗ Jun 1–7, 202624,849 RV Democrats 46% · Republicans 42%Democrats +4.0
Generic ballot ↗ May 25–31, 2026RV Democrats 45% · Republicans 42%Democrats +3.0
Generic ballot ↗ May 11–17, 202628,525 RV Democrats 46% · Republicans 42%Democrats +4.0
Generic ballot ↗ Apr 30 – May 3, 20262,201 RV Democrats 46% · Republicans 43%Democrats +3.0
Generic ballot ↗ Apr 24–27, 20262,201 RV Democrats 45% · Republicans 42%Democrats +3.0
Generic ballot ↗ Apr 13–19, 202627,869 RV Democrats 45% · Republicans 42%Democrats +3.0
Generic ballot ↗ Apr 6–12, 202612,505 RV Democrats 46% · Republicans 42%Democrats +4.0
Generic ballot ↗ Apr 6–9, 20262,200 RV Democrats 46% · Republicans 42%Democrats +4.0
Generic ballot ↗ Mar 30 – Apr 5, 202612,505 RV Democrats 45% · Republicans 42%Democrats +3.0
Generic ballot ↗ Apr 3–4, 20262,203 RV Democrats 45% · Republicans 42%Democrats +3.0
Generic ballot ↗ Mar 16–22, 202626,406 RV Democrats 45% · Republicans 42%Democrats +3.0
Generic ballot ↗ Mar 17–22, 202615,029 A Democrats 47% · Republicans 42%Democrats +5.0
Generic ballot ↗ Mar 13–16, 20262,201 RV Democrats 48% · Republicans 40%Democrats +8.0
Generic ballot ↗ Mar 9–15, 20262,663 RV Democrats 45% · Republicans 42%Democrats +3.0
Generic ballot ↗ Mar 2–8, 202625,948 RV Democrats 45% · Republicans 42%Democrats +3.0
Generic ballot ↗ Feb 23 – Mar 1, 2026RV Democrats 45% · Republicans 42%Democrats +3.0
Generic ballot ↗ Feb 20–22, 20262,202 RV Democrats 46% · Republicans 42%Democrats +4.0
Generic ballot ↗ Feb 13–16, 20262,200 RV Democrats 45% · Republicans 43%Democrats +2.0
Generic ballot ↗ Feb 6–9, 20262,200 RV Democrats 45% · Republicans 41%Democrats +4.0
Generic ballot ↗ Feb 2–8, 202629,303 RV Democrats 45% · Republicans 42%Democrats +3.0
Generic ballot ↗ Jan 30 – Feb 1, 20262,201 RV Democrats 47% · Republicans 42%Democrats +5.0
Generic ballot ↗ Jan 23–25, 20262,201 RV Democrats 45% · Republicans 43%Democrats +2.0
Generic ballot ↗ Jan 16–18, 20262,201 RV Democrats 45% · Republicans 43%Democrats +2.0
Generic ballot ↗ Jan 9–12, 20262,201 RV Democrats 46% · Republicans 43%Democrats +3.0
Generic ballot ↗ Dec 29, 2025 – Jan 4, 202622,709 RV Democrats 44% · Republicans 42%Democrats +2.0
Generic ballot ↗ Dec 15–21, 202520,240 RV Democrats 45% · Republicans 42%Democrats +3.0
Generic ballot ↗ Dec 12–15, 20252,201 RV Democrats 45% · Republicans 44%Democrats +1.0
Generic ballot ↗ Dec 5–7, 20252,201 RV Democrats 46% · Republicans 43%Democrats +3.0
Generic ballot ↗ Nov 26–30, 20252,200 RV Democrats 45% · Republicans 41%Democrats +4.0
Generic ballot ↗ Nov 21–23, 20252,200 RV Democrats 45% · Republicans 43%Democrats +2.0
Generic ballot ↗ Nov 14–16, 20252,200 RV Democrats 46% · Republicans 44%Democrats +2.0
Vance vs. Newsom ↗ Nov 14–16, 20252,201 RV Vance 42% · Newsom 41%Vance +1.0
Generic ballot ↗ Nov 7–9, 20252,201 RV Democrats 48% · Republicans 43%Democrats +5.0
GOP primary ↗ Nov 7–9, 2025936 RV Vance 42% · Jr. 19% · DeSantis 7%
Dem primary ↗ Nov 7–9, 2025984 RV Harris 29% · Newsom 20% · Buttigieg 8%
Generic ballot ↗ Oct 17–19, 20252,200 RV Democrats 46% · Republicans 43%Democrats +3.0
Generic ballot ↗ Oct 3–5, 20252,200 RV Democrats 46% · Republicans 43%Democrats +3.0
Generic ballot ↗ Aug 29–31, 20252,202 RV Democrats 45% · Republicans 41%Democrats +4.0
Dem primary ↗ Aug 22–24, 20251,000 LV Harris 29% · Newsom 19% · Buttigieg 9%
Dem primary ↗ Jun 13–15, 20251,000 RV Harris 34% · Newsom 11% · Buttigieg 7%
Dem primary ↗ Mar 14–16, 2025— Harris 36% · Buttigieg 10% · Newsom 5%
Trump approval ↗ Feb 21–24, 20252,225 RV Approve 50% · Disapprove 47%Approve +3.0
Trump approval ↗ Feb 14–16, 20252,217 RV Approve 50% · Disapprove 47%Approve +3.0
Trump approval ↗ Feb 7–9, 20252,230 RV Approve 50% · Disapprove 48%Approve +2.0
Generic ballot ↗ Feb 3–9, 202519,675 RV Democrats 43% · Republicans 45%Republicans +2.0
Trump approval ↗ Jan 31 – Feb 3, 20252,303 RV Approve 49% · Disapprove 47%Approve +2.0
Generic ballot ↗ Jan 27 – Feb 2, 202519,675 RV Democrats 43% · Republicans 44%Republicans +1.0
Generic ballot ↗ Jan 20–26, 202519,675 RV Democrats 42% · Republicans 45%Republicans +3.0
Trump approval ↗ Jan 24–26, 20252,302 RV Approve 52% · Disapprove 44%Approve +8.0
GOP primary ↗ Dec 6–8, 2024994 RV Vance 30% · Jr. 30% · DeSantis 9%
Dem primary ↗ Nov 15–17, 20241,012 Harris 43% · Buttigieg 9% · Newsom 8%
Dem primary · Politico ↗ May 28–29, 20243,997 RV Harris 21% · Newsom 10% · Buttigieg 10%

Every poll ElectionsUSA has recorded for the approval, generic-ballot and 2028 averages, newest first. Names after a race are the media sponsor or co-pollster; ↗ opens the source.

How these numbers work

Accuracy covers polls taken in the final three weeks of races from 2016 to 2022, from FiveThirtyEight's open archive of polls matched to certified results (CC BY 4.0). Average error is the mean absolute difference between the poll's margin and the actual margin. The adjusted error shrinks it toward the field average (k = 15 polls) so a short hot streak can't outrank a long record, and the ranking uses it. Bias is the average signed miss: D+ means the polls were more favourable to Democrats than the result, R+ more favourable to Republicans.

Polls are listed under the firm that conducted them, even when the source names a media partner first (for example "The Economist/YouGov" or "CNN/SSRS"). Full method on the scorecard and methodology pages. Something wrong? Report it through the corrections page.