Pollster scorecard · ranked 2 of 69
How accurate is The New York Times/Siena College?
The New York Times/Siena College's 95 polls in the final three weeks of 2016–2022 races missed the final margin by 4.0 points on average, ranking 2nd of 69 pollsters on the ElectionsUSA scorecard. On average its polls leaned 1.2 points toward Democrats, and 75% had the eventual winner ahead.
- Average error
- 4.0
- points on the final margin; all pollsters 5.8
- Adjusted error
- 4.28
- 2nd of 69 on the scorecard
- Partisan bias
- D+1.2
- average signed miss
- Right call
- 75%
- of polls had the winner ahead
- Rated polls
- 95
- final three weeks, 2016–2022
- 538 grade
- A+
- final (2023)
Main survey method in the rated polls: Live Phone.
By election year
| Year | Polls | Avg error | Bias | Right call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 10 | 4.9 | D+4.1 | 55% |
| 2017 | 1 | 5.9 | R+5.9 | 100% |
| 2018 | 46 | 3.6 | R+1.2 | 72% |
| 2020 | 26 | 5.4 | D+5.5 | 81% |
| 2022 | 12 | 1.9 | ±0.0 | 88% |
By race
| Race | Polls | Avg error | Bias | Right call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| House | 48 | 3.6 | R+1.1 | 78% |
| Senate | 19 | 3.6 | D+2.9 | 68% |
| President | 17 | 5.9 | D+5.6 | 65% |
| Governor | 10 | 3.8 | D+1.6 | 85% |
| Presidential primary | 1 | 3.6 | n/a | 100% |
The New York Times/Siena College polls on ElectionsUSA (10)
CSV →| Race | Dates | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump approval · Siena College ↗ | Oct 12–19, 2026 | 3,494 RV | Approve 34% · Disapprove 60% | Disapprove +26.0 |
| Generic ballot · Siena University ↗ | Oct 12–19, 2026 | 3,494 LV | Democrats 52% · Republicans 41% | Democrats +11.0 |
| Generic ballot · Siena University ↗ | Oct 12–19, 2026 | 3,494 RV | Democrats 51% · Republicans 39% | Democrats +12.0 |
| Dem primary · Siena ↗ | Oct 12–19, 2026 | 1,170 RV | Harris 12% · Newsom 9% · Buttigieg 7% | |
| Generic ballot · Siena College ↗ | Sep 8–13, 2026 | 1,503 LV | Democrats 51% · Republicans 43% | Democrats +8.0 |
| Generic ballot · Siena College ↗ | May 11–15, 2026 | 1,507 RV | Democrats 50% · Republicans 39% | Democrats +11.0 |
| Generic ballot · Siena College ↗ | Jan 12–17, 2026 | 1,625 RV | Democrats 48% · Republicans 43% | Democrats +5.0 |
| Generic ballot · Siena College ↗ | Sep 22–27, 2025 | 1,313 RV | Democrats 47% · Republicans 45% | Democrats +2.0 |
| Trump approval · Siena College ↗ | Apr 21–24, 2025 | 913 RV | Approve 42% · Disapprove 54% | Disapprove +12.0 |
| Generic ballot · Siena College ↗ | Apr 21–24, 2025 | 913 RV | Democrats 47% · Republicans 44% | Democrats +3.0 |
Every poll ElectionsUSA has recorded for the approval, generic-ballot and 2028 averages, newest first. Names after a race are the media sponsor or co-pollster; ↗ opens the source.
How these numbers work
Accuracy covers polls taken in the final three weeks of races from 2016 to 2022, from FiveThirtyEight's open archive of polls matched to certified results (CC BY 4.0). Average error is the mean absolute difference between the poll's margin and the actual margin. The adjusted error shrinks it toward the field average (k = 15 polls) so a short hot streak can't outrank a long record, and the ranking uses it. Bias is the average signed miss: D+ means the polls were more favourable to Democrats than the result, R+ more favourable to Republicans.
Polls are listed under the firm that conducted them, even when the source names a media partner first (for example "The Economist/YouGov" or "CNN/SSRS"). Full method on the scorecard and methodology pages. Something wrong? Report it through the corrections page.