Pollster scorecard · ranked 15 of 69 · Republican-aligned
How accurate is Rasmussen Reports?
Rasmussen Reports' 88 polls in the final three weeks of 2016–2022 races missed the final margin by 4.8 points on average, ranking 15th of 69 pollsters on the ElectionsUSA scorecard. On average its polls leaned 2.1 points toward Democrats, and 68% had the eventual winner ahead.
- Average error
- 4.8
- points on the final margin; all pollsters 5.8
- Adjusted error
- 4.91
- 15th of 69 on the scorecard
- Partisan bias
- D+2.1
- average signed miss
- Right call
- 68%
- of polls had the winner ahead
- Rated polls
- 88
- final three weeks, 2016–2022
- 538 grade
- B
- final (2023)
Main survey method in the rated polls: IVR/Online.
By election year
| Year | Polls | Avg error | Bias | Right call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 59 | 5.2 | D+3.9 | 66% |
| 2017 | 2 | 4.9 | R+4.0 | 75% |
| 2018 | 3 | 7.1 | R+7.1 | 67% |
| 2020 | 17 | 2.8 | D+1.0 | 68% |
| 2022 | 7 | 4.4 | R+4.4 | 86% |
By race
| Race | Polls | Avg error | Bias | Right call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| President | 45 | 4.6 | D+2.9 | 57% |
| Senate | 31 | 4.6 | D+3.1 | 77% |
| House | 6 | 4.9 | R+4.9 | 83% |
| Governor | 4 | 6.0 | R+5.6 | 88% |
| Presidential primary | 2 | 6.6 | n/a | 100% |
Rasmussen Reports polls on ElectionsUSA (16)
CSV →| Race | Dates | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Generic ballot ↗ | Sep 24–30, 2026 | 1,794 LV | Democrats 47% · Republicans 44% | Democrats +3.0 |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Sep 17–23, 2026 | 1,819 LV | Democrats 48% · Republicans 43% | Democrats +5.0 |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Sep 10–16, 2026 | 1,746 LV | Democrats 49% · Republicans 41% | Democrats +8.0 |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Sep 3–9, 2026 | 1,905 LV | Democrats 47% · Republicans 42% | Democrats +5.0 |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Aug 23–30, 2026 | 2,231 LV | Democrats 41% · Republicans 36% | Democrats +5.0 |
| Dem primary ↗ | Aug 2–4, 2026 | 1,222 LV | Harris 37% · Newsom 14% · Buttigieg 10% | |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Jun 24 – Jul 1, 2026 | 2,224 LV | Democrats 46% · Republicans 42% | Democrats +4.0 |
| Generic ballot ↗ | May 13–20, 2026 | 2,161 LV | Democrats 47% · Republicans 41% | Democrats +6.0 |
| Dem primary ↗ | May 18–20, 2026 | 433 LV | Harris 34% · Newsom 12% · Ocasio-Cortez 11% | |
| GOP primary ↗ | Apr 9–13, 2026 | 385 LV | Vance 47% · Rubio 20% · DeSantis 7% | |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Mar 16–23, 2026 | 2,222 LV | Democrats 45% · Republicans 42% | Democrats +3.0 |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Jan 26–29, 2026 | LV | Democrats 47% · Republicans 41% | Democrats +6.0 |
| Dem primary ↗ | Jan 25–27, 2026 | 1,115 LV | Harris 34% · Newsom 20% · Buttigieg 10% | |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Jan 7–14, 2026 | 2,273 LV | Democrats 47% · Republicans 41% | Democrats +6.0 |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Nov 18–23, 2025 | 2,410 LV | Democrats 45% · Republicans 42% | Democrats +3.0 |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Jul 13–17, 2025 | 2,288 LV | Democrats 46% · Republicans 42% | Democrats +4.0 |
Every poll ElectionsUSA has recorded for the approval, generic-ballot and 2028 averages, newest first. Names after a race are the media sponsor or co-pollster; ↗ opens the source.
How these numbers work
Accuracy covers polls taken in the final three weeks of races from 2016 to 2022, from FiveThirtyEight's open archive of polls matched to certified results (CC BY 4.0). Average error is the mean absolute difference between the poll's margin and the actual margin. The adjusted error shrinks it toward the field average (k = 15 polls) so a short hot streak can't outrank a long record, and the ranking uses it. Bias is the average signed miss: D+ means the polls were more favourable to Democrats than the result, R+ more favourable to Republicans.
Polls are listed under the firm that conducted them, even when the source names a media partner first (for example "The Economist/YouGov" or "CNN/SSRS"). Full method on the scorecard and methodology pages. Something wrong? Report it through the corrections page.