Pollster scorecard · ranked 48 of 69
How accurate is RMG Research?
RMG Research's 25 polls in the final three weeks of 2020 races missed the final margin by 6.0 points on average, ranking 48th of 69 pollsters on the ElectionsUSA scorecard. On average its polls leaned 6.0 points toward Democrats, and 76% had the eventual winner ahead.
- Average error
- 6.0
- points on the final margin; all pollsters 5.8
- Adjusted error
- 5.93
- 48th of 69 on the scorecard
- Partisan bias
- D+6.0
- average signed miss
- Right call
- 76%
- of polls had the winner ahead
- Rated polls
- 25
- final three weeks, 2020
- 538 grade
- B-
- final (2023)
Main survey method in the rated polls: IVR/Text.
By election year
| Year | Polls | Avg error | Bias | Right call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 25 | 6.0 | D+6.0 | 76% |
By race
| Race | Polls | Avg error | Bias | Right call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| President | 14 | 5.0 | D+5.0 | 75% |
| Senate | 6 | 7.0 | D+7.0 | 67% |
| Governor | 3 | 8.7 | D+8.7 | 100% |
| House | 2 | 6.4 | D+6.4 | 75% |
RMG Research polls on ElectionsUSA (29)
CSV →| Race | Dates | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Generic ballot ↗ | Oct 13–14, 2026 | 2,000 RV | Democrats 51% · Republicans 43% | Democrats +8.0 |
| Trump approval ↗ | Sep 21–29, 2026 | 2,000 RV | Approve 41% · Disapprove 58% | Disapprove +17.0 |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Sep 8–15, 2026 | 2,000 RV | Democrats 51% · Republicans 43% | Democrats +8.0 |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Jul 6–14, 2026 | 2,000 RV | Democrats 47% · Republicans 45% | Democrats +2.0 |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Jun 1–4, 2026 | 2,000 RV | Democrats 49% · Republicans 45% | Democrats +4.0 |
| Generic ballot ↗ | May 4–6, 2026 | 2,000 RV | Democrats 50% · Republicans 41% | Democrats +9.0 |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Apr 6–9, 2026 | 2,000 RV | Democrats 45% · Republicans 42% | Democrats +3.0 |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Mar 2–5, 2026 | 2,000 RV | Democrats 44% · Republicans 43% | Democrats +1.0 |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Feb 9–12, 2026 | 2,000 RV | Democrats 41% · Republicans 44% | Republicans +3.0 |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Jan 5–8, 2026 | 2,000 RV | Democrats 47% · Republicans 46% | Democrats +1.0 |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Dec 1–4, 2025 | 2,000 RV | Democrats 44% · Republicans 48% | Republicans +4.0 |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Oct 27–30, 2025 | 2,000 RV | Democrats 44% · Republicans 46% | Republicans +2.0 |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Sep 22–24, 2025 | 2,000 RV | Democrats 45% · Republicans 46% | Republicans +1.0 |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Aug 18–21, 2025 | 2,000 RV | Democrats 44% · Republicans 44% | Tie |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Jul 14–16, 2025 | 2,000 RV | Democrats 45% · Republicans 49% | Republicans +4.0 |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Jun 18–19, 2025 | 1,000 RV | Democrats 44% · Republicans 52% | Republicans +8.0 |
| Generic ballot ↗ | May 20–21, 2025 | 1,000 RV | Democrats 48% · Republicans 45% | Democrats +3.0 |
| Trump approval ↗ | Apr 16–24, 2025 | 3,000 RV | Approve 49% · Disapprove 48% | Approve +1.0 |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Apr 16, 2025 | 1,000 RV | Democrats 50% · Republicans 45% | Democrats +5.0 |
| Trump approval ↗ | Apr 2–10, 2025 | 3,000 RV | Approve 49% · Disapprove 48% | Approve +1.0 |
| Trump approval ↗ | Mar 18–27, 2025 | 3,000 RV | Approve 52% · Disapprove 45% | Approve +7.0 |
| Trump approval ↗ | Feb 24–28, 2025 | 3,000 RV | Approve 53% · Disapprove 45% | Approve +8.0 |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Feb 20–21, 2025 | 1,000 RV | Democrats 46% · Republicans 48% | Republicans +2.0 |
| Trump approval ↗ | Feb 18–21, 2025 | 3,000 RV | Approve 53% · Disapprove 44% | Approve +9.0 |
| Trump approval ↗ | Feb 10–14, 2025 | 3,000 RV | Approve 55% · Disapprove 43% | Approve +12.0 |
| Trump approval ↗ | Feb 3–6, 2025 | 3,000 RV | Approve 51% · Disapprove 45% | Approve +6.0 |
| Trump approval ↗ | Jan 27–31, 2025 | 4,000 RV | Approve 53% · Disapprove 43% | Approve +10.0 |
| Trump approval · Napolitan Institute ↗ | Jan 20–23, 2025 | 3,000 RV | Approve 57% · Disapprove 39% | Approve +18.0 |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Jan 15–16, 2025 | 1,000 RV | Democrats 44% · Republicans 51% | Republicans +7.0 |
Every poll ElectionsUSA has recorded for the approval, generic-ballot and 2028 averages, newest first. Names after a race are the media sponsor or co-pollster; ↗ opens the source.
How these numbers work
Accuracy covers polls taken in the final three weeks of races from 2016 to 2022, from FiveThirtyEight's open archive of polls matched to certified results (CC BY 4.0). Average error is the mean absolute difference between the poll's margin and the actual margin. The adjusted error shrinks it toward the field average (k = 15 polls) so a short hot streak can't outrank a long record, and the ranking uses it. Bias is the average signed miss: D+ means the polls were more favourable to Democrats than the result, R+ more favourable to Republicans.
Polls are listed under the firm that conducted them, even when the source names a media partner first (for example "The Economist/YouGov" or "CNN/SSRS"). Full method on the scorecard and methodology pages. Something wrong? Report it through the corrections page.