Pollster scorecard · ranked 51 of 69
How accurate is SSRS?
SSRS's 27 polls in the final three weeks of 2018–2022 races missed the final margin by 6.4 points on average, ranking 51st of 69 pollsters on the ElectionsUSA scorecard. On average its polls leaned 5.3 points toward Democrats, and 70% had the eventual winner ahead.
- Average error
- 6.4
- points on the final margin; all pollsters 5.8
- Adjusted error
- 6.19
- 51st of 69 on the scorecard
- Partisan bias
- D+5.3
- average signed miss
- Right call
- 70%
- of polls had the winner ahead
- Rated polls
- 27
- final three weeks, 2018–2022
- 538 grade
- C+
- final (2023)
Main survey method in the rated polls: Live Phone.
By election year
| Year | Polls | Avg error | Bias | Right call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 11 | 5.2 | D+4.2 | 64% |
| 2020 | 14 | 8.1 | D+7.1 | 71% |
| 2022 | 2 | 1.3 | ±0.0 | 100% |
By race
| Race | Polls | Avg error | Bias | Right call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | 9 | 4.3 | D+3.8 | 67% |
| President | 7 | 7.3 | D+7.3 | 71% |
| Governor | 6 | 6.8 | D+5.7 | 67% |
| House | 3 | 4.8 | D+4.0 | 100% |
| Presidential primary | 2 | 13.8 | n/a | 50% |
SSRS polls on ElectionsUSA (15)
CSV →| Race | Dates | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump approval · CNN ↗ | Oct 15–18, 2026 | 1,701 A | Approve 32% · Disapprove 67% | Disapprove +35.0 |
| Generic ballot · CNN ↗ | Oct 15–18, 2026 | 1,206 RV | Democrats 49% · Republicans 39% | Democrats +10.0 |
| Generic ballot · CNN ↗ | Sep 16–17, 2026 | 867 RV | Democrats 49% · Republicans 41% | Democrats +8.0 |
| Trump approval · CNN ↗ | Sep 16–17, 2026 | 1,206 A | Approve 33% · Disapprove 67% | Disapprove +34.0 |
| Trump approval · CNN ↗ | Jul 23–27, 2026 | 1,225 A | Approve 34% · Disapprove 66% | Disapprove +32.0 |
| Generic ballot · CNN ↗ | Jul 23–27, 2026 | 914 RV | Democrats 47% · Republicans 39% | Democrats +8.0 |
| Generic ballot · CNN ↗ | Apr 30 – May 4, 2026 | RV | Democrats 45% · Republicans 42% | Democrats +3.0 |
| Generic ballot · CNN ↗ | Mar 26–30, 2026 | 951 RV | Democrats 48% · Republicans 42% | Democrats +6.0 |
| Generic ballot · CNN ↗ | Jan 9–12, 2026 | 968 RV | Democrats 46% · Republicans 41% | Democrats +5.0 |
| Trump approval · CNN ↗ | Jan 9–12, 2026 | 1,205 A | Approve 55% · Disapprove 44% | Approve +11.0 |
| Generic ballot · CNN ↗ | Oct 27–30, 2025 | 945 RV | Democrats 47% · Republicans 42% | Democrats +5.0 |
| Trump approval · CNN ↗ | Apr 17–24, 2025 | 1,678 RV | Approve 41% · Disapprove 59% | Disapprove +18.0 |
| Trump approval · CNN ↗ | Mar 6–9, 2025 | 1,206 A | Approve 45% · Disapprove 54% | Disapprove +9.0 |
| Trump approval · CNN ↗ | Feb 24–28, 2025 | 2,212 A | Approve 48% · Disapprove 52% | Disapprove +4.0 |
| Trump approval · CNN ↗ | Feb 13–17, 2025 | 1,206 A | Approve 47% · Disapprove 52% | Disapprove +5.0 |
Every poll ElectionsUSA has recorded for the approval, generic-ballot and 2028 averages, newest first. Names after a race are the media sponsor or co-pollster; ↗ opens the source.
How these numbers work
Accuracy covers polls taken in the final three weeks of races from 2016 to 2022, from FiveThirtyEight's open archive of polls matched to certified results (CC BY 4.0). Average error is the mean absolute difference between the poll's margin and the actual margin. The adjusted error shrinks it toward the field average (k = 15 polls) so a short hot streak can't outrank a long record, and the ranking uses it. Bias is the average signed miss: D+ means the polls were more favourable to Democrats than the result, R+ more favourable to Republicans.
Polls are listed under the firm that conducted them, even when the source names a media partner first (for example "The Economist/YouGov" or "CNN/SSRS"). Full method on the scorecard and methodology pages. Something wrong? Report it through the corrections page.