Pollster scorecard · ranked 46 of 69
How accurate is UMass Lowell?
UMass Lowell's 24 polls in the final three weeks of 2016–2022 races missed the final margin by 6.0 points on average, ranking 46th of 69 pollsters on the ElectionsUSA scorecard. On average its polls leaned 2.5 points toward Democrats, and 81% had the eventual winner ahead.
- Average error
- 6.0
- points on the final margin; all pollsters 5.8
- Adjusted error
- 5.90
- 46th of 69 on the scorecard
- Partisan bias
- D+2.5
- average signed miss
- Right call
- 81%
- of polls had the winner ahead
- Rated polls
- 24
- final three weeks, 2016–2022
- 538 grade
- A-
- final (2023), rated as University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion
Main survey method in the rated polls: Online.
By election year
| Year | Polls | Avg error | Bias | Right call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 7 | 4.0 | R+0.6 | 86% |
| 2020 | 13 | 8.4 | D+4.8 | 73% |
| 2022 | 4 | 1.4 | ±0.0 | 100% |
By race
| Race | Polls | Avg error | Bias | Right call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Presidential primary | 9 | 10.6 | n/a | 78% |
| Senate | 6 | 3.0 | D+3.0 | 83% |
| Governor | 5 | 4.1 | D+2.4 | 100% |
| President | 4 | 2.4 | D+1.9 | 62% |
UMass Lowell polls on ElectionsUSA (7)
CSV →| Race | Dates | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vance vs. Ocasio-Cortez · YouGov ↗ | Oct 2–4, 2026 | 1,000 LV | Vance 42% · Ocasio-Cortez 45% | Ocasio-Cortez +3.0 |
| Generic ballot · YouGov ↗ | Oct 2–4, 2026 | 1,000 LV | Democrats 52% · Republicans 43% | Democrats +9.0 |
| Vance vs. Newsom · YouGov ↗ | Oct 2–4, 2026 | 1,000 LV | Vance 42% · Newsom 46% | Newsom +4.0 |
| Vance vs. Newsom ↗ | Mar 26–30, 2026 | 1,000 RV | Vance 36% · Newsom 33% | Vance +3.0 |
| Generic ballot · YouGov ↗ | Mar 26–30, 2026 | 1,000 A | Democrats 38% · Republicans 35% | Democrats +3.0 |
| Vance vs. Ocasio-Cortez ↗ | Mar 26–30, 2026 | 1,000 RV | Vance 36% · Ocasio-Cortez 33% | Vance +3.0 |
| Generic ballot · YouGov ↗ | Oct 16–20, 2025 | 1,000 A | Democrats 38% · Republicans 35% | Democrats +3.0 |
Every poll ElectionsUSA has recorded for the approval, generic-ballot and 2028 averages, newest first. Names after a race are the media sponsor or co-pollster; ↗ opens the source.
How these numbers work
Accuracy covers polls taken in the final three weeks of races from 2016 to 2022, from FiveThirtyEight's open archive of polls matched to certified results (CC BY 4.0). Average error is the mean absolute difference between the poll's margin and the actual margin. The adjusted error shrinks it toward the field average (k = 15 polls) so a short hot streak can't outrank a long record, and the ranking uses it. Bias is the average signed miss: D+ means the polls were more favourable to Democrats than the result, R+ more favourable to Republicans.
Polls are listed under the firm that conducted them, even when the source names a media partner first (for example "The Economist/YouGov" or "CNN/SSRS"). Full method on the scorecard and methodology pages. Something wrong? Report it through the corrections page.