Pollster scorecard · ranked 17 of 69
How accurate is AtlasIntel?
AtlasIntel's 24 polls in the final three weeks of 2020–2022 races missed the final margin by 4.4 points on average, ranking 17th of 69 pollsters on the ElectionsUSA scorecard. On average its polls leaned 0.6 points toward Democrats, and 73% had the eventual winner ahead.
- Average error
- 4.4
- points on the final margin; all pollsters 5.8
- Adjusted error
- 4.94
- 17th of 69 on the scorecard
- Partisan bias
- D+0.6
- average signed miss
- Right call
- 73%
- of polls had the winner ahead
- Rated polls
- 24
- final three weeks, 2020–2022
- 538 grade
- A
- final (2023)
Main survey method in the rated polls: Online.
By election year
| Year | Polls | Avg error | Bias | Right call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 22 | 4.6 | D+1.0 | 75% |
| 2022 | 2 | 2.3 | R+2.3 | 50% |
By race
| Race | Polls | Avg error | Bias | Right call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| President | 10 | 2.0 | D+0.4 | 60% |
| Presidential primary | 8 | 8.8 | n/a | 81% |
| Senate | 5 | 2.9 | D+1.2 | 80% |
| House | 1 | 0.4 | R+0.4 | 100% |
AtlasIntel polls on ElectionsUSA (23)
CSV →| Race | Dates | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOP primary ↗ | May 4–7, 2026 | — | Rubio 45.4% · Vance 29.6% · DeSantis 11.2% | |
| Dem primary ↗ | May 4–7, 2026 | 2,069 A | Ocasio-Cortez 26% · Buttigieg 22.4% · Newsom 21.2% | |
| GOP primary ↗ | May 4–7, 2026 | 2,069 A | Rubio 45.4% · Vance 29.6% · DeSantis 11.2% | |
| Generic ballot ↗ | May 4–7, 2026 | 2,069 A | Democrats 55% · Republicans 40% | Democrats +15.0 |
| Dem primary ↗ | May 4–7, 2026 | — | Ocasio-Cortez 26% · Buttigieg 22.4% · Newsom 21.2% | |
| Dem primary ↗ | Dec 15–19, 2025 | 685 A | Newsom 35.4% · Ocasio-Cortez 16% · Buttigieg 14.5% | |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Dec 15–19, 2025 | 2,315 A | Democrats 54% · Republicans 38% | Democrats +16.0 |
| GOP primary ↗ | Dec 15–19, 2025 | 2,315 A | Vance 46.7% · Rubio 22.6% · DeSantis 13.4% | |
| GOP primary ↗ | Sep 12–16, 2025 | 1,066 A | Vance 54.6% · DeSantis 16.3% · Rubio 12.2% | |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Sep 12–16, 2025 | 1,066 A | Democrats 52% · Republicans 44% | Democrats +8.0 |
| Dem primary ↗ | Sep 12–16, 2025 | 323 A | Newsom 37.4% · Harris 20.5% · Buttigieg 12.1% | |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Jul 13–18, 2025 | 1,935 A | Democrats 51% · Republicans 43% | Democrats +8.0 |
| Dem primary ↗ | Jul 13–18, 2025 | 1,435 A | Buttigieg 26.7% · Ocasio-Cortez 18.5% · Newsom 15.8% | |
| GOP primary ↗ | Jul 13–18, 2025 | 1,935 A | Vance 57.9% · DeSantis 13.2% · Rubio 9.7% | |
| Generic ballot ↗ | May 21–27, 2025 | 3,469 A | Democrats 51% · Republicans 42% | Democrats +9.0 |
| GOP primary ↗ | May 21–27, 2025 | 1,044 A | Vance 37.3% · Rubio 18.7% · Jr. 8.8% | |
| Dem primary ↗ | May 21–27, 2025 | 895 A | Buttigieg 31.5% · Ocasio-Cortez 19.4% · Harris 16.6% | |
| GOP primary ↗ | Apr 10–14, 2025 | 2,347 A | Vance 60% · Rubio 9% · DeSantis 9% | |
| Trump approval ↗ | Apr 10–14, 2025 | 2,347 A | Approve 46% · Disapprove 52% | Disapprove +6.0 |
| Dem primary ↗ | Apr 10–14, 2025 | 2,347 A | Buttigieg 28% · Harris 24% · Ocasio-Cortez 16% | |
| Trump approval ↗ | Mar 7–12, 2025 | 2,550 A | Approve 47% · Disapprove 52% | Disapprove +5.0 |
| Trump approval ↗ | Feb 24–27, 2025 | 2,849 A | Approve 50% · Disapprove 50% | Tie |
| Trump approval ↗ | Jan 21–23, 2025 | 1,882 A | Approve 50% · Disapprove 50% | Tie |
Every poll ElectionsUSA has recorded for the approval, generic-ballot and 2028 averages, newest first. Names after a race are the media sponsor or co-pollster; ↗ opens the source.
How these numbers work
Accuracy covers polls taken in the final three weeks of races from 2016 to 2022, from FiveThirtyEight's open archive of polls matched to certified results (CC BY 4.0). Average error is the mean absolute difference between the poll's margin and the actual margin. The adjusted error shrinks it toward the field average (k = 15 polls) so a short hot streak can't outrank a long record, and the ranking uses it. Bias is the average signed miss: D+ means the polls were more favourable to Democrats than the result, R+ more favourable to Republicans.
Polls are listed under the firm that conducted them, even when the source names a media partner first (for example "The Economist/YouGov" or "CNN/SSRS"). Full method on the scorecard and methodology pages. Something wrong? Report it through the corrections page.