ElectionsUSA

Pollster scorecard · ranked 18 of 69

How accurate is Emerson College?

Emerson College's 249 polls in the final three weeks of 2016–2022 races missed the final margin by 4.9 points on average, ranking 18th of 69 pollsters on the ElectionsUSA scorecard. On average its polls leaned 0.6 points toward Democrats, and 78% had the eventual winner ahead.

Average error
4.9
points on the final margin; all pollsters 5.8
Adjusted error
4.96
18th of 69 on the scorecard
Partisan bias
D+0.6
average signed miss
Right call
78%
of polls had the winner ahead
Rated polls
249
final three weeks, 2016–2022
538 grade
A-
final (2023)

Main survey method in the rated polls: IVR/Online.

By election year

YearPollsAvg errorBiasRight call
2016785.8D+2.474%
201765.5R+4.950%
2018604.2±0.090%
201913.9D+3.9100%
2020495.3D+3.067%
202133.2D+3.267%
2022524.1R+1.683%

By race

RacePollsAvg errorBiasRight call
Senate763.9D+0.470%
President484.8D+3.167%
Governor453.4±0.087%
House405.2R+1.485%
Presidential primary408.2n/a89%

Emerson College polls on ElectionsUSA (49)

CSV →
RaceDatesSampleResultMargin
Generic ballot ↗ Oct 24–26, 20261,000 LV Democrats 52% · Republicans 42%Democrats +10.0
Trump approval ↗ Oct 24–26, 20261,000 LV Approve 37% · Disapprove 57%Disapprove +20.0
Trump approval ↗ Sep 21–22, 20261,000 LV Approve 39% · Disapprove 57.9%Disapprove +18.9
Generic ballot ↗ Sep 21–22, 20261,000 LV Democrats 53% · Republicans 42%Democrats +11.0
Generic ballot · RealClear Opinion Research ↗ Sep 12–15, 20261,500 RV Democrats 37% · Republicans 29%Democrats +8.0
Generic ballot ↗ Aug 16–17, 20261,000 LV Democrats 51% · Republicans 43%Democrats +8.0
Vance vs. Ocasio-Cortez ↗ Aug 16–17, 20261,000 LV Vance 46% · Ocasio-Cortez 44%Vance +2.0
Vance vs. Buttigieg ↗ Aug 16–17, 20261,000 LV Vance 44% · Buttigieg 49%Buttigieg +5.0
Vance vs. Newsom ↗ Aug 16–17, 20261,000 LV Vance 44% · Newsom 49%Newsom +5.0
Generic ballot ↗ Jul 19–20, 20261,100 LV Democrats 53% · Republicans 42%Democrats +11.0
Dem primary ↗ Jul 19–20, 2026574 LV Buttigieg 19% · Newsom 17% · Ocasio-Cortez 13%
GOP primary ↗ Jul 19–20, 2026— Vance 39% · Rubio 38% · DeSantis 5%
Generic ballot ↗ Jun 7–8, 20261,200 LV Democrats 50% · Republicans 40%Democrats +10.0
Generic ballot ↗ May 24–25, 20261,000 LV Democrats 50% · Republicans 41%Democrats +9.0
GOP primary ↗ May 24–25, 2026432 LV Vance 35.5% · Rubio 34.6% · DeSantis 5.4%
Dem primary ↗ May 24–25, 2026432 LV Harris 17.9% · Newsom 15.9% · Ocasio-Cortez 11.1%
Generic ballot ↗ Apr 24–26, 20261,000 LV Democrats 50% · Republicans 40%Democrats +10.0
Generic ballot ↗ Mar 16–17, 20261,000 LV Democrats 49% · Republicans 42%Democrats +7.0
Generic ballot ↗ Feb 21–22, 20261,000 LV Democrats 50% · Republicans 42%Democrats +8.0
Dem primary ↗ Feb 21–22, 2026438 LV Newsom 20% · Buttigieg 16% · Harris 13%
GOP primary ↗ Feb 21–22, 2026454 LV Vance 52% · Rubio 20% · DeSantis 6%
GOP primary ↗ Feb 10–12, 2026LV Vance 52% · Rubio 20%
Generic ballot ↗ Jan 17–19, 20261,000 LV Democrats 48% · Republicans 42%Democrats +6.0
Generic ballot ↗ Dec 14–15, 20251,000 RV Democrats 44% · Republicans 42%Democrats +2.0
Generic ballot ↗ Nov 3–4, 20251,000 RV Democrats 44% · Republicans 40%Democrats +4.0
Dem primary ↗ Nov 3–4, 2025417 RV Newsom 24.5% · Harris 10.3% · Buttigieg 8.6%
GOP primary ↗ Nov 3–4, 2025420 RV Vance 53.6% · Rubio 6.1% · DeSantis 1.7%
Vance vs. Newsom ↗ Oct 13–14, 20251,000 RV Vance 45.5% · Newsom 44.9%Vance +0.6
Generic ballot ↗ Oct 13–14, 20251,000 RV Democrats 44% · Republicans 43%Democrats +1.0
Vance vs. Newsom ↗ Aug 25–26, 20251,000 RV Vance 44.4% · Newsom 43.5%Vance +0.9
GOP primary ↗ Aug 25–26, 2025410 RV Vance 51.7% · Rubio 9.4% · DeSantis 7.1%
Dem primary ↗ Aug 25–26, 2025387 RV Newsom 25.1% · Buttigieg 16% · Harris 11.4%
Generic ballot ↗ Aug 25–26, 20251,000 RV Democrats 43% · Republicans 43%Tie
Generic ballot ↗ Jul 21–22, 20251,400 LV Democrats 44% · Republicans 42%Democrats +2.0
Vance vs. Ocasio-Cortez ↗ Jul 21–22, 20251,400 RV Vance 44.4% · Ocasio-Cortez 41%Vance +3.4
Vance vs. Buttigieg ↗ Jul 21–22, 20251,400 RV Vance 43.9% · Buttigieg 43.1%Vance +0.8
Vance vs. Newsom ↗ Jul 21–22, 20251,400 RV Vance 45.3% · Newsom 42.1%Vance +3.2
Dem primary ↗ Jun 24–25, 2025404 RV Buttigieg 16% · Harris 13% · Newsom 12%
Generic ballot ↗ Jun 24–25, 20251,000 LV Democrats 43% · Republicans 40%Democrats +3.0
GOP primary ↗ Jun 24–25, 2025416 RV Vance 46% · Rubio 12% · DeSantis 9%
Trump approval ↗ Apr 25–28, 20251,000 RV Approve 45% · Disapprove 45%Tie
Trump approval ↗ Mar 8–10, 20251,000 RV Approve 47% · Disapprove 45%Approve +2.0
Generic ballot ↗ Mar 2–3, 20251,000 RV Democrats 44% · Republicans 41%Democrats +3.0
Trump approval ↗ Mar 2–3, 20251,000 RV Approve 48% · Disapprove 43%Approve +5.0
Trump approval ↗ Feb 28 – Mar 2, 20252,229 RV Approve 49% · Disapprove 48%Approve +1.0
Trump approval ↗ Feb 15–17, 20251,000 RV Approve 48% · Disapprove 42%Approve +6.0
Trump approval ↗ Jan 27–28, 20251,000 RV Approve 49% · Disapprove 41%Approve +8.0
Dem primary ↗ Nov 20–22, 2024400 RV Harris 37% · Newsom 7% · Buttigieg 4%
GOP primary ↗ Nov 20–22, 2024420 RV Vance 30% · DeSantis 5% · Haley 2%

Every poll ElectionsUSA has recorded for the approval, generic-ballot and 2028 averages, newest first. Names after a race are the media sponsor or co-pollster; ↗ opens the source.

How these numbers work

Accuracy covers polls taken in the final three weeks of races from 2016 to 2022, from FiveThirtyEight's open archive of polls matched to certified results (CC BY 4.0). Average error is the mean absolute difference between the poll's margin and the actual margin. The adjusted error shrinks it toward the field average (k = 15 polls) so a short hot streak can't outrank a long record, and the ranking uses it. Bias is the average signed miss: D+ means the polls were more favourable to Democrats than the result, R+ more favourable to Republicans.

Polls are listed under the firm that conducted them, even when the source names a media partner first (for example "The Economist/YouGov" or "CNN/SSRS"). Full method on the scorecard and methodology pages. Something wrong? Report it through the corrections page.