Pollster scorecard · ranked 23 of 69
How accurate is Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research?
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research's 45 polls in the final three weeks of 2016–2022 races missed the final margin by 4.7 points on average, ranking 23rd of 69 pollsters on the ElectionsUSA scorecard. On average its polls leaned 1.8 points toward Democrats, and 82% had the eventual winner ahead.
- Average error
- 4.7
- points on the final margin; all pollsters 5.8
- Adjusted error
- 5.01
- 23rd of 69 on the scorecard
- Partisan bias
- D+1.8
- average signed miss
- Right call
- 82%
- of polls had the winner ahead
- Rated polls
- 45
- final three weeks, 2016–2022
- 538 grade
- A
- final (2023)
Main survey method in the rated polls: Live Phone.
By election year
| Year | Polls | Avg error | Bias | Right call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 19 | 5.5 | D+1.3 | 84% |
| 2017 | 2 | 6.1 | D+2.2 | 100% |
| 2018 | 8 | 4.4 | D+2.9 | 75% |
| 2020 | 6 | 5.4 | D+5.4 | 100% |
| 2021 | 2 | 6.5 | D+0.4 | 50% |
| 2022 | 8 | 2.0 | R+1.3 | 75% |
By race
| Race | Polls | Avg error | Bias | Right call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Presidential primary | 14 | 7.0 | n/a | 86% |
| Senate | 11 | 4.2 | D+2.5 | 82% |
| Governor | 9 | 3.7 | R+0.7 | 67% |
| President | 8 | 3.8 | D+3.6 | 100% |
| House | 3 | 1.9 | D+1.9 | 67% |
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research polls on ElectionsUSA (10)
CSV →| Race | Dates | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Generic ballot · Shaw & Co. Research ↗ | Oct 9–12, 2026 | 1,202 RV | Democrats 54% · Republicans 45% | Democrats +9.0 |
| Trump approval ↗ | Oct 9–12, 2026 | 1,202 RV | Approve 36% · Disapprove 64% | Disapprove +28.0 |
| Generic ballot · Shaw & Co. Research ↗ | Sep 11–14, 2026 | 1,211 RV | Democrats 51% · Republicans 44% | Democrats +7.0 |
| Generic ballot · Shaw & Co. Research ↗ | Jul 17–20, 2026 | 1,003 RV | Democrats 53% · Republicans 46% | Democrats +7.0 |
| Generic ballot · Shaw & Co. Research ↗ | Apr 17–20, 2026 | 1,001 RV | Democrats 52% · Republicans 47% | Democrats +5.0 |
| Generic ballot · Shaw & Co. Research ↗ | Jan 23–26, 2026 | 1,005 RV | Democrats 52% · Republicans 46% | Democrats +6.0 |
| Trump approval ↗ | Jan 10–13, 2026 | 922 RV | Approve 52% · Disapprove 46% | Approve +6.0 |
| Trump approval · Shaw & Co. ↗ | Apr 18–21, 2025 | 1,104 RV | Approve 44% · Disapprove 55% | Disapprove +11.0 |
| Generic ballot · Shaw & Co. Research ↗ | Apr 18–21, 2025 | 1,104 RV | Democrats 49% · Republicans 42% | Democrats +7.0 |
| Trump approval ↗ | Mar 14–17, 2025 | 994 RV | Approve 49% · Disapprove 51% | Disapprove +2.0 |
Every poll ElectionsUSA has recorded for the approval, generic-ballot and 2028 averages, newest first. Names after a race are the media sponsor or co-pollster; ↗ opens the source.
How these numbers work
Accuracy covers polls taken in the final three weeks of races from 2016 to 2022, from FiveThirtyEight's open archive of polls matched to certified results (CC BY 4.0). Average error is the mean absolute difference between the poll's margin and the actual margin. The adjusted error shrinks it toward the field average (k = 15 polls) so a short hot streak can't outrank a long record, and the ranking uses it. Bias is the average signed miss: D+ means the polls were more favourable to Democrats than the result, R+ more favourable to Republicans.
Polls are listed under the firm that conducted them, even when the source names a media partner first (for example "The Economist/YouGov" or "CNN/SSRS"). Full method on the scorecard and methodology pages. Something wrong? Report it through the corrections page.