Pollster scorecard · ranked 24 of 69
How accurate is Noble Predictive Insights?
Noble Predictive Insights' 12 polls in the final three weeks of 2016–2022 races missed the final margin by 4.0 points on average, ranking 24th of 69 pollsters on the ElectionsUSA scorecard. On average its polls leaned 1.5 points toward Republicans, and 67% had the eventual winner ahead.
- Average error
- 4.0
- points on the final margin; all pollsters 5.8
- Adjusted error
- 5.02
- 24th of 69 on the scorecard
- Partisan bias
- R+1.5
- average signed miss
- Right call
- 67%
- of polls had the winner ahead
- Rated polls
- 12
- final three weeks, 2016–2022
- 538 grade
- B/C
- final (2023), rated as OH Predictive Insights
Main survey method in the rated polls: Live Phone.
By election year
| Year | Polls | Avg error | Bias | Right call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 1 | 4.3 | n/a | 100% |
| 2018 | 4 | 5.4 | R+5.4 | 50% |
| 2020 | 2 | 2.7 | D+2.7 | 100% |
| 2022 | 5 | 3.4 | ±0.0 | 60% |
By race
| Race | Polls | Avg error | Bias | Right call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | 6 | 4.0 | R+2.3 | 67% |
| Governor | 3 | 4.0 | R+0.3 | 33% |
| House | 1 | 5.3 | R+5.3 | 100% |
| President | 1 | 2.7 | D+2.7 | 100% |
| Presidential primary | 1 | 4.3 | n/a | 100% |
Noble Predictive Insights polls on ElectionsUSA (13)
CSV →| Race | Dates | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dem primary · The Center Square ↗ | Oct 5–7, 2026 | 1,171 RV | Harris 29% · Newsom 14% · Buttigieg 10% | |
| GOP primary · The Center Square ↗ | Oct 5–7, 2026 | 1,137 RV | Vance 44% · Rubio 18% · DeSantis 8% | |
| Generic ballot · The Center Square ↗ | Aug 12–16, 2026 | 2,533 RV | Democrats 47% · Republicans 42% | Democrats +5.0 |
| Dem primary ↗ | Aug 12–16, 2026 | 930 RV | Harris 28% · Newsom 14% · Buttigieg 12% | |
| Generic ballot · The Center Square ↗ | Jun 1–4, 2026 | 2,585 RV | Democrats 47% · Republicans 41% | Democrats +6.0 |
| Dem primary ↗ | Jun 1–4, 2026 | 1,013 RV | Harris 27% · Newsom 14% · Buttigieg 11% | |
| GOP primary ↗ | Jun 1–4, 2026 | 1,046 RV | Vance 36% · Rubio 17% · DeSantis 7% | |
| Dem primary ↗ | Mar 2–5, 2026 | 1,152 RV | Harris 31% · Newsom 16% · Buttigieg 7% | |
| Generic ballot · The Center Square ↗ | Oct 2–6, 2025 | 2,565 RV | Democrats 45% · Republicans 43% | Democrats +2.0 |
| GOP primary ↗ | Oct 2–6, 2025 | 1,156 RV | Vance 38% · Jr. 25% · DeSantis 6% | |
| Dem primary ↗ | Oct 2–6, 2025 | 2,565 RV | Harris 33% · Newsom 21% · Ocasio-Cortez 8% | |
| Trump approval · Franklin News ↗ | Apr 15–18, 2025 | 2,527 RV | Approve 44% · Disapprove 53% | Disapprove +9.0 |
| Generic ballot · The Center Square ↗ | Apr 15–18, 2025 | 2,500 LV | Democrats 45% · Republicans 42% | Democrats +3.0 |
Every poll ElectionsUSA has recorded for the approval, generic-ballot and 2028 averages, newest first. Names after a race are the media sponsor or co-pollster; ↗ opens the source.
How these numbers work
Accuracy covers polls taken in the final three weeks of races from 2016 to 2022, from FiveThirtyEight's open archive of polls matched to certified results (CC BY 4.0). Average error is the mean absolute difference between the poll's margin and the actual margin. The adjusted error shrinks it toward the field average (k = 15 polls) so a short hot streak can't outrank a long record, and the ranking uses it. Bias is the average signed miss: D+ means the polls were more favourable to Democrats than the result, R+ more favourable to Republicans.
Polls are listed under the firm that conducted them, even when the source names a media partner first (for example "The Economist/YouGov" or "CNN/SSRS"). Full method on the scorecard and methodology pages. Something wrong? Report it through the corrections page.