Pollster scorecard · ranked 4 of 69 · Republican-aligned
How accurate is Cygnal?
Cygnal's 38 polls in the final three weeks of 2016–2022 races missed the final margin by 3.7 points on average, ranking 4th of 69 pollsters on the ElectionsUSA scorecard. On average its polls leaned 2.3 points toward Democrats, and 93% had the eventual winner ahead.
- Average error
- 3.7
- points on the final margin; all pollsters 5.8
- Adjusted error
- 4.31
- 4th of 69 on the scorecard
- Partisan bias
- D+2.3
- average signed miss
- Right call
- 93%
- of polls had the winner ahead
- Rated polls
- 38
- final three weeks, 2016–2022
- 538 grade
- A
- final (2023)
Main survey method in the rated polls: IVR/Online.
By election year
| Year | Polls | Avg error | Bias | Right call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 2 | 5.3 | D+5.3 | 100% |
| 2018 | 9 | 2.5 | D+1.9 | 89% |
| 2019 | 1 | 0.5 | R+0.5 | 100% |
| 2020 | 7 | 6.9 | D+6.9 | 100% |
| 2021 | 1 | 1.9 | D+1.9 | 50% |
| 2022 | 18 | 3.2 | D+0.6 | 94% |
By race
| Race | Polls | Avg error | Bias | Right call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | 18 | 3.8 | D+3.4 | 89% |
| Governor | 17 | 3.9 | D+1.2 | 97% |
| House | 2 | 0.7 | ±0.0 | 100% |
| President | 1 | 5.8 | D+5.8 | 100% |
Cygnal polls on ElectionsUSA (28)
CSV →| Race | Dates | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Generic ballot ↗ | Oct 23–24, 2026 | 1,500 LV | Democrats 52% · Republicans 43% | Democrats +9.0 |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Oct 7–10, 2026 | 1,500 LV | Democrats 51% · Republicans 42% | Democrats +9.0 |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Oct 1–2, 2026 | 1,500 LV | Democrats 52% · Republicans 43% | Democrats +9.0 |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Sep 1–2, 2026 | 1,500 LV | Democrats 51% · Republicans 42% | Democrats +9.0 |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Aug 6–7, 2026 | 1,500 LV | Democrats 49% · Republicans 42% | Democrats +7.0 |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Jun 30 – Jul 1, 2026 | 1,500 LV | Democrats 50% · Republicans 44% | Democrats +6.0 |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Jun 2–3, 2026 | 1,500 LV | Democrats 49% · Republicans 44% | Democrats +5.0 |
| Generic ballot ↗ | May 4–7, 2026 | 1,500 LV | Democrats 48% · Republicans 41% | Democrats +7.0 |
| Generic ballot ↗ | May 5–6, 2026 | 1,500 LV | Democrats 49% · Republicans 42% | Democrats +7.0 |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Apr 2–3, 2026 | 1,500 LV | Democrats 49% · Republicans 43% | Democrats +6.0 |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Mar 3–4, 2026 | 1,500 LV | Democrats 49% · Republicans 45% | Democrats +4.0 |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Feb 24–26, 2026 | 1,048 LV | Democrats 48% · Republicans 45% | Democrats +3.0 |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Feb 3–4, 2026 | 1,500 LV | Democrats 48% · Republicans 44% | Democrats +4.0 |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Jan 27–28, 2026 | 1,004 LV | Democrats 48% · Republicans 44% | Democrats +4.0 |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Jan 7–8, 2026 | 1,500 LV | Democrats 48% · Republicans 45% | Democrats +3.0 |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Dec 5–7, 2025 | 1,500 LV | Democrats 48% · Republicans 44% | Democrats +4.0 |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Nov 5–6, 2025 | 1,500 LV | Democrats 50% · Republicans 44% | Democrats +6.0 |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Oct 7–8, 2025 | 1,500 LV | Democrats 48% · Republicans 45% | Democrats +3.0 |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Sep 2–3, 2025 | 1,500 LV | Democrats 48% · Republicans 45% | Democrats +3.0 |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Jul 1–2, 2025 | 1,500 LV | Democrats 47% · Republicans 46% | Democrats +1.0 |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Jun 19–21, 2025 | 800 LV | Democrats 48% · Republicans 46% | Democrats +2.0 |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Apr 1–3, 2025 | 1,500 LV | Democrats 48% · Republicans 47% | Democrats +1.0 |
| Trump approval ↗ | Apr 1–3, 2025 | 1,500 LV | Approve 47% · Disapprove 51% | Disapprove +4.0 |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Mar 3–5, 2025 | 1,500 LV | Democrats 47% · Republicans 46% | Democrats +1.0 |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Feb 4–5, 2025 | 1,500 LV | Democrats 46% · Republicans 47% | Republicans +1.0 |
| Trump approval ↗ | Feb 4–5, 2025 | 1,500 LV | Approve 50% · Disapprove 48% | Approve +2.0 |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Jan 9–12, 2025 | 1,500 LV | Democrats 45% · Republicans 47% | Republicans +2.0 |
| Generic ballot ↗ | Dec 9–11, 2024 | 1,500 LV | Democrats 45% · Republicans 48% | Republicans +3.0 |
Every poll ElectionsUSA has recorded for the approval, generic-ballot and 2028 averages, newest first. Names after a race are the media sponsor or co-pollster; ↗ opens the source.
How these numbers work
Accuracy covers polls taken in the final three weeks of races from 2016 to 2022, from FiveThirtyEight's open archive of polls matched to certified results (CC BY 4.0). Average error is the mean absolute difference between the poll's margin and the actual margin. The adjusted error shrinks it toward the field average (k = 15 polls) so a short hot streak can't outrank a long record, and the ranking uses it. Bias is the average signed miss: D+ means the polls were more favourable to Democrats than the result, R+ more favourable to Republicans.
Polls are listed under the firm that conducted them, even when the source names a media partner first (for example "The Economist/YouGov" or "CNN/SSRS"). Full method on the scorecard and methodology pages. Something wrong? Report it through the corrections page.