ElectionsUSA

Pollster scorecard · ranked 19 of 69

How accurate is Ipsos?

Ipsos' 56 polls in the final three weeks of 2016–2022 races missed the final margin by 4.7 points on average, ranking 19th of 69 pollsters on the ElectionsUSA scorecard. On average its polls leaned 3.2 points toward Democrats, and 60% had the eventual winner ahead.

Average error
4.7
points on the final margin; all pollsters 5.8
Adjusted error
4.96
19th of 69 on the scorecard
Partisan bias
D+3.2
average signed miss
Right call
60%
of polls had the winner ahead
Rated polls
56
final three weeks, 2016–2022
538 grade
B-
final (2023)

Main survey method in the rated polls: Online.

By election year

YearPollsAvg errorBiasRight call
201685.0D+5.050%
2018105.4R+3.150%
2020324.6D+4.673%
202263.8D+3.717%

By race

RacePollsAvg errorBiasRight call
President274.7D+4.778%
House134.3D+2.831%
Senate124.9D+2.354%
Governor46.1R+2.950%

Ipsos polls on ElectionsUSA (65)

CSV →
RaceDatesSampleResultMargin
Trump approval · Reuters ↗ Oct 22–26, 20261,679 A Approve 32% · Disapprove 66%Disapprove +34.0
Generic ballot · Reuters ↗ Oct 22–26, 20261,280 RV Democrats 50% · Republicans 41%Democrats +9.0
Generic ballot · Reuters ↗ Oct 22–26, 20261,164 LV Democrats 53% · Republicans 44%Democrats +9.0
Generic ballot · Reuters ↗ Oct 16–19, 20261,279 RV Democrats 47% · Republicans 35%Democrats +12.0
Generic ballot · Reuters ↗ Oct 16–19, 20261,279 RV Democrats 47% · Republicans 35%Democrats +12.0
Trump approval · Reuters ↗ Oct 16–19, 20261,679 A Approve 31%
Generic ballot · Reuters ↗ Oct 16–19, 20261,679 A Democrats 40% · Republicans 29%Democrats +11.0
Trump approval · Reuters ↗ Oct 16–19, 20261,679 A Approve 31% · Disapprove 66%Disapprove +35.0
Trump approval · ABC News / Washington Post ↗ Oct 9–13, 2026A Approve 33% · Disapprove 66%Disapprove +33.0
Generic ballot · The Washington Post / ABC News ↗ Oct 9–13, 20262,032 LV Democrats 52% · Republicans 44%Democrats +8.0
Trump approval · Washington Post / ABC News ↗ Oct 9–13, 20262,545 A Approve 33% · Disapprove 66%Disapprove +33.0
Trump approval · Reuters ↗ Sep 30 – Oct 5, 20264,506 A Approve 32% · Disapprove 65%Disapprove +33.0
Generic ballot · Reuters ↗ Sep 30 – Oct 5, 20264,506 A Democrats 37% · Republicans 30%Democrats +7.0
Generic ballot · Reuters ↗ Sep 30 – Oct 5, 20263,526 RV Democrats 44% · Republicans 37%Democrats +7.0
Generic ballot · Reuters ↗ Sep 17–20, 20261,277 A Democrats 37% · Republicans 29%Democrats +8.0
Trump approval · Reuters ↗ Sep 17–20, 20261,277 A Approve 32% · Disapprove 66%Disapprove +34.0
Generic ballot · Reuters ↗ Sep 17–20, 2026979 RV Democrats 43% · Republicans 35%Democrats +8.0
Generic ballot · Reuters ↗ Sep 11–14, 2026896 RV Democrats 44% · Republicans 37%Democrats +7.0
Generic ballot · Reuters ↗ Sep 11–14, 20261,143 A Democrats 39% · Republicans 31%Democrats +8.0
Generic ballot · Reuters ↗ Aug 28–31, 2026924 RV Democrats 43% · Republicans 38%Democrats +5.0
Generic ballot · Reuters ↗ Aug 28–31, 20261,167 A Democrats 38% · Republicans 31%Democrats +7.0
Generic ballot · Reuters ↗ Aug 14–17, 20261,166 A Democrats 35% · Republicans 30%Democrats +5.0
Generic ballot · Reuters ↗ Aug 14–17, 2026876 RV Democrats 41% · Republicans 36%Democrats +5.0
Generic ballot · Reuters ↗ Jul 29 – Aug 3, 20264,505 A Democrats 36% · Republicans 30%Democrats +6.0
Generic ballot · Reuters ↗ Jul 29 – Aug 3, 20263,542 RV Democrats 42% · Republicans 37%Democrats +5.0
Generic ballot · Reuters ↗ Jul 24–26, 20261,003 RV Democrats 40% · Republicans 38%Democrats +2.0
Generic ballot · Reuters ↗ Jul 24–26, 20261,246 A Democrats 36% · Republicans 32%Democrats +4.0
Generic ballot · The Washington Post ↗ Jul 8–13, 20261,483 LV Democrats 53% · Republicans 45%Democrats +8.0
Generic ballot · The Washington Post ↗ Jul 8–13, 20262,092 RV Democrats 48% · Republicans 45%Democrats +3.0
Generic ballot · Reuters ↗ Jun 18–22, 20261,262 A Democrats 35% · Republicans 31%Democrats +4.0
Generic ballot · Reuters ↗ Jun 18–22, 2026978 RV Democrats 41% · Republicans 36%Democrats +5.0
Generic ballot · Reuters ↗ Jun 3–8, 20264,531 A Democrats 35% · Republicans 31%Democrats +4.0
Generic ballot · Reuters ↗ Jun 3–8, 20263,578 RV Democrats 41% · Republicans 37%Democrats +4.0
Generic ballot · Reuters ↗ May 15–18, 2026984 RV Democrats 39% · Republicans 38%Democrats +1.0
Generic ballot · Reuters ↗ May 15–18, 20261,271 A Democrats 35% · Republicans 31%Democrats +4.0
Generic ballot · Reuters ↗ May 8–11, 2026993 RV Democrats 41% · Republicans 35%Democrats +6.0
Generic ballot · Reuters ↗ May 8–11, 20261,254 A Democrats 36% · Republicans 31%Democrats +5.0
Generic ballot · The Washington Post / ABC News ↗ Apr 24–28, 20262,059 RV Democrats 49% · Republicans 44%Democrats +5.0
Generic ballot · Reuters ↗ Apr 24–27, 20261,269 A Democrats 36% · Republicans 31%Democrats +5.0
Generic ballot · Reuters ↗ Apr 24–27, 20261,014 RV Democrats 41% · Republicans 37%Democrats +4.0
Generic ballot · Reuters ↗ Apr 15–20, 20263,577 RV Democrats 41% · Republicans 38%Democrats +3.0
Generic ballot · Reuters ↗ Apr 15–20, 20264,557 A Democrats 35% · Republicans 31%Democrats +4.0
Generic ballot · Reuters ↗ Mar 20–22, 20261,272 A Democrats 35% · Republicans 31%Democrats +4.0
Generic ballot · Reuters ↗ Mar 20–22, 2026985 RV Democrats 40% · Republicans 38%Democrats +2.0
Generic ballot · Reuters ↗ Mar 17–19, 20261,206 RV Democrats 40% · Republicans 37%Democrats +3.0
Generic ballot · Reuters ↗ Mar 17–19, 20261,545 A Democrats 35% · Republicans 32%Democrats +3.0
Generic ballot · Reuters ↗ Feb 18–23, 20264,638 A Democrats 35% · Republicans 32%Democrats +3.0
Generic ballot · Reuters ↗ Feb 18–23, 20263,686 RV Democrats 40% · Republicans 38%Democrats +2.0
Generic ballot · Washington Post / ABC News ↗ Feb 12–17, 20262,589 A Democrats 43% · Republicans 39%Democrats +4.0
Generic ballot · Washington Post / ABC News ↗ Feb 12–17, 20262,087 RV Democrats 47% · Republicans 45%Democrats +2.0
Generic ballot · Reuters ↗ Feb 13–16, 2026846 RV Democrats 41% · Republicans 37%Democrats +4.0
Generic ballot · Reuters ↗ Feb 13–16, 20261,117 A Democrats 36% · Republicans 32%Democrats +4.0
Generic ballot · Reuters ↗ Jan 23–25, 2026906 RV Democrats 41% · Republicans 37%Democrats +4.0
Generic ballot · Reuters ↗ Jan 12–13, 2026941 RV Democrats 40% · Republicans 38%Democrats +2.0
Generic ballot · Reuters ↗ Dec 12–15, 2025775 RV Democrats 40% · Republicans 36%Democrats +4.0
Generic ballot · Reuters ↗ Dec 3–8, 20253,521 RV Democrats 40% · Republicans 39%Democrats +1.0
Generic ballot · Reuters ↗ Nov 7–12, 2025938 RV Democrats 41% · Republicans 40%Democrats +1.0
Generic ballot · Washington Post / ABC News ↗ Oct 24–28, 20252,203 RV Democrats 46% · Republicans 44%Democrats +2.0
Generic ballot · Reuters ↗ Aug 22–24, 20251,022 A Democrats 38% · Republicans 34%Democrats +4.0
Trump approval · Reuters ↗ Apr 16–21, 2025913 RV Approve 42% · Disapprove 53%Disapprove +11.0
Trump approval · Reuters ↗ Mar 3–4, 20251,174 A Approve 43% · Disapprove 50%Disapprove +7.0
Trump approval · Washington Post ↗ Feb 13–18, 20251,206 A Approve 48% · Disapprove 51%Disapprove +3.0
Trump approval · Reuters ↗ Feb 13–18, 20254,145 A Approve 44% · Disapprove 51%Disapprove +7.0
Trump approval · Reuters ↗ Jan 24–26, 20251,034 A Approve 45% · Disapprove 46%Disapprove +1.0
Trump approval · Reuters ↗ Jan 20–21, 20251,077 A Approve 47% · Disapprove 41%Approve +6.0

Every poll ElectionsUSA has recorded for the approval, generic-ballot and 2028 averages, newest first. Names after a race are the media sponsor or co-pollster; ↗ opens the source.

How these numbers work

Accuracy covers polls taken in the final three weeks of races from 2016 to 2022, from FiveThirtyEight's open archive of polls matched to certified results (CC BY 4.0). Average error is the mean absolute difference between the poll's margin and the actual margin. The adjusted error shrinks it toward the field average (k = 15 polls) so a short hot streak can't outrank a long record, and the ranking uses it. Bias is the average signed miss: D+ means the polls were more favourable to Democrats than the result, R+ more favourable to Republicans.

Polls are listed under the firm that conducted them, even when the source names a media partner first (for example "The Economist/YouGov" or "CNN/SSRS"). Full method on the scorecard and methodology pages. Something wrong? Report it through the corrections page.