Interactive · starts from the 2024 result
2028 Electoral Map: Make Your Own Forecast
Donald Trump won 2024 with 312 electoral votes to 226; 2028 uses the same electoral-vote allocation. Starting from that map, a uniform swing of more than 1.7 points toward Democrats would flip Pennsylvania and give them 270. Tap states to flip them, swing every state at once, and share your forecast.
Republicans win, 312–226, as in 2024.
Tipping point: Pennsylvania, the state that takes the Democrats to 270 on a uniform swing.
Closest states
2024 margin| State | EV | 2024 | With swing | Your call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin | 10 | R+0.9 | same | Rep |
| Michigan | 15 | R+1.4 | same | Rep |
| Pennsylvania | 19 | R+1.7 | same | Rep |
| Georgia | 16 | R+2.2 | same | Rep |
| New Hampshire | 4 | D+2.8 | same | Dem |
| Nevada | 6 | R+3.1 | same | Rep |
| North Carolina | 16 | R+3.2 | same | Rep |
| Minnesota | 10 | D+4.2 | same | Dem |
| Arizona | 11 | R+5.5 | same | Rep |
| Virginia | 13 | D+5.8 | same | Dem |
The ten states nearest to even after your swing; ✎ marks your own calls. Each links to its full results since 1976.
How this map works
Every state starts with its certified 2024 margin. The swing slider adds the same number of points toward one party in every state, a "uniform swing": the simplest way to ask what a better or worse national environment would do to the map. Real elections never move every state equally, so tap any state to call it yourself.
2028 uses the same electoral votes as 2024: both follow the House apportionment from the 2020 census, and the next reapportionment, after the 2030 census, takes effect in 2032. Maine and Nebraska give two electoral votes to the statewide winner and one to the winner of each congressional district. Maine's 2nd district voted Republican in 2024 against its state, so it is shown on its own; we don't have district results to swing it, so it keeps its 2024 winner until you tap it. Nebraska's 2nd district voted Democratic in 2024 against its state, so it is shown on its own; we don't have district results to swing it, so it keeps its 2024 winner until you tap it.
See the 2024 results by state, the 2028 matchup polls and the prediction markets for where the race stands now.