Analysis · · by Eren Menteşe
Final generic ballot D+8.0: what the polls said
The final ElectionsUSA average of 119 national polls had Democrats at 50.8% and Republicans at 42.8%, a D+8.0 margin, going into the November 3, 2026 midterms.
The final number
Going into Election Day the ElectionsUSA generic ballot average stood at D+8.0: Democrats 50.8%, Republicans 42.8%. It weights 119 of the 546 national polls on record by recency, sample size, pollster record and how often each firm publishes; the last poll in it ended November 2. The generic ballot measures the national House vote, not seats: district lines and uncontested races mean a national lead does not translate one-for-one into the House majority.
How it moved
On October 3 the average was D+7.8, so the final month moved it 0.2 points toward Democrats. The trend chart shows the average as it stood on each date, without hindsight.
The final three weeks, pollster by pollster
34 polls from 23 pollsters ended between October 13 and Election Day. Their margins ranged from D+3.0 to D+12.0. The pollsters with the most polls in that window:
| Pollster | Polls | Average margin | Last poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ipsos | 5 | D+8.6 | Nov 2 |
| YouGov | 4 | D+8.2 | Oct 30 |
| ActiVote | 3 | D+6.3 | Oct 30 |
| Focaldata | 2 | D+8.0 | Nov 1 |
| Hart Research Associates | 2 | D+7.0 | Oct 30 |
| Big Data Poll | 1 | D+12.0 | Oct 30 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 1 | D+8.0 | Oct 21 |
| Cygnal | 1 | D+9.0 | Oct 24 |
| Echelon Insights | 1 | D+5.0 | Oct 23 |
| Emerson College | 1 | D+10.0 | Oct 26 |
| HarrisX | 1 | D+4.0 | Oct 26 |
| John Zogby Strategies | 1 | D+6.0 | Nov 2 |
Likely voters and registered voters
Where a pollster published several populations we use one, likely voters first. Across the final three weeks: 27 likely-voter polls averaged D+7.9; 7 registered-voter polls averaged D+8.3.
What comes next
Once the national House popular vote has been counted we score every one of these polls against it on the 2026 pollster accuracy page, first with the unofficial count, labelled preliminary, then with certified results. Poll closing times and each state's official results are on the 2026 midterms page.
Numbers on this page are computed from the open dataset each time the site is rebuilt. Method: methodology. Corrections: corrections log.