Analysis · · by Eren Menteşe
Polls vs. results: the preliminary 2026 House popular vote
The preliminary House popular vote is D+12.0, as of November 5, 2026, 5 p.m. ET. The final ElectionsUSA average was D+8.0, a miss of 4.0 points on the count so far.
The count so far
Democrats 55.3%, Republicans 43.3% (D+12.0), as of November 5, 2026, 5 p.m. ET, according to NBC News. These are unofficial figures; they will move as late ballots are counted and states certify.
How the polls did
The final average missed the count so far by 4.0 points. Across all 34 polls from the final three weeks the average signed miss was R+4.1 (D+ means the polls were more favourable to Democrats than the result). Pollsters are ranked once most of the vote is counted; until then, those with the most polls:
| Pollster | Polls | Average margin | Error | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipsos | 5 | D+8.6 | 3.4 | R+3.4 |
| YouGov | 4 | D+8.2 | 3.8 | R+3.8 |
| ActiVote | 3 | D+6.3 | 5.7 | R+5.7 |
| Focaldata | 2 | D+8.0 | 4.0 | R+4.0 |
| Hart Research Associates | 2 | D+7.0 | 5.0 | R+5.0 |
| Big Data Poll | 1 | D+12.0 | 0.0 | none |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 1 | D+8.0 | 4.0 | R+4.0 |
| Cygnal | 1 | D+9.0 | 3.0 | R+3.0 |
| Echelon Insights | 1 | D+5.0 | 7.0 | R+7.0 |
| Emerson College | 1 | D+10.0 | 2.0 | R+2.0 |
| HarrisX | 1 | D+4.0 | 8.0 | R+8.0 |
| John Zogby Strategies | 1 | D+6.0 | 6.0 | R+6.0 |
Full table
Every pollster and every poll, with the CSV, is on the 2026 pollster accuracy page.
Numbers on this page are computed from the open dataset each time the site is rebuilt. Method: methodology. Corrections: corrections log.